The fantasy baseball guide doesn’t like to be pessimistic but let’s face it – fantasy baseball has busts every season. It’s never too early, then, to start thinking about guys who could underperform their draft position next year. Here are a few to consider. Note the conspicuous absence of Mark Reynolds from this list. Hey, the guy has legit power.
Joe Mauer
Don’t get me wrong; Mauer should win the 2009 American League MVP and has the tools to be the next Tony Gwynn in terms of batting average. But Mauer’s career high in games played is 146; he gets nicked up every year. Do you want to use a top-10 draft pick on a guy who won’t play every day for you?
Derek Jeter
The guy’s a marvel. At 35 years old, he had one of his best seasons, batting .334, stealing 30 bases and smacking 18 homers. Sooner or later, though, age will catch up with him. It’s tough to imagine him finishing 15th overall in the Yahoo! Game again in 2010.
Chris Carpenter
No one doubts Chris Carpenter’s ability but, like Mauer, he’s perennially hurt. Carpenter started four total games in 2007 and 2008 before surprising with 28 outings in 2009. He’ll dominate again when he plays, but it’s hard to say how much he will play before he gets hurt again. Why draft him in the first couple of rounds when you can probably get equal Northbet.com pick value with a Cliff Lee several rounds later?
Javier Vazquez
The underrated Vazquez was what Johan Santana was supposed to be this past season. He struck out 238 batters, won 15 games and finished as the fourth-ranked pitcher in the Yahoo! Game. Vazquez, however, is 33. My guess is that 2009 will go down as his career year. He’ll still be good but his performance probably won’t match his draft position. Wouldn’t you rather take a chance on the upside of a Cole Hamels or Chad Billingsley, each of whom had a disappointing 2009?
